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ResourcesResearch IntegrityResearchers’ Individual Publication Rate Has Not Increased in a Century (Papers: Daniele Fanelli and Vincent Larivière | 2016)

Australasian Human Research Ethics Consultancy Services Pty Ltd (AHRECS)

Researchers’ Individual Publication Rate Has Not Increased in a Century (Papers: Daniele Fanelli and Vincent Larivière | 2016)

 


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Abstract

It can often be heard (e.g. in the popular press) that the ‘pressure to publish’ is what has fuelled the increase in retractions and research misconduct cases. This 2016 Daniele Fanelli and Vincent Larivière paper examines whether that pressure has in fact increased the volume of publications per person. The results are quite surprising.

Debates over the pros and cons of a “publish or perish” philosophy have inflamed academia for at least half a century. Growing concerns, in particular, are expressed for policies that reward “quantity” at the expense of “quality,” because these might prompt scientists to unduly multiply their publications by fractioning (“salami slicing”), duplicating, rushing, simplifying, or even fabricating their results. To assess the reasonableness of these concerns, we analyzed publication patterns of over 40,000 researchers that, between the years 1900 and 2013, have published two or more papers within 15 years, in any of the disciplines covered by the Web of Science. The total number of papers published by researchers during their early career period (first fifteen years) has increased in recent decades, but so has their average number of co-authors. If we take the latter factor into account, by measuring productivity fractionally or by only counting papers published as first author, we observe no increase in productivity throughout the century. Even after the 1980s, adjusted productivity has not increased for most disciplines and countries. These results are robust to methodological choices and are actually conservative with respect to the hypothesis that publication rates are growing. Therefore, the widespread belief that pressures to publish are causing the scientific literature to be flooded with salami-sliced, trivial, incomplete, duplicated, plagiarized and false results is likely to be incorrect or at least exaggerated.
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Fanelli D, Larivière V (2016) Researchers’ Individual Publication Rate Has Not Increased in a Century. PLoS ONE 11(3): e0149504. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0149504
Publisher (Open Access): http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0149504



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